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Unless you've been living under a rock, you've heard plenty about this year's nasty presidential election.
According to a NBC/WSJ poll released on Tuesday, the negativity has weighed on the favorability ratings of President Barack Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney. The President's unfavorables jumped 5 points in a month, from 38 percent to 43 percent, and Governor Romney is now on track to head to the convention as the first GOP nominee with a negative favorability rating.
At first glance, the shift in the numbers seems in line with the narrative of two campaigns losing respect with the American people as they battle to define each other before the fall. But a comment from Republican pollster Bill McInturff indicates that the negativity has had an earlier, more dramatic effect this time around. 'These are numbers you usually see in October,' McInturff said of the favorable/unfavorable ratings.
Is this election really that much more negative, or is it just being framed and received that way? Hard to say, but it's more likely that a boring race is feeding the news media's growing obsession with the gossipy side of politics. That negative feedback loop makes the race feel much nastier than it actually is.
As your writer said last week: highly negative campaigns are nothing new, especially from an incumbent. President Obama has borrowed a page from Karl Rove's 2004 playbook and tried to define his challenger early and often. In turn, Gov. Romney has thrown a series of counter-punches to deflect the media's attention back onto the President.
But most of this cycle's attacks are actually not that damning, offensive, or controversial ' despite the media's attempt to read all of them as such. Gov. Romney's tenure at Bain Capital is fair game, whether he agrees or not, because Romney himself has made it a cornerstone of his credentials. 'Firms,' the successful spot that showed Romney singing 'America the Beautiful' behind text about outsourcing and Swiss bank accounts, was tastefully blunt on matters that Gov. Romney refuses to prove false by releasing his tax returns. On the other hand, Priorities USA's newest ad, called 'Romney's Gold,' takes the attacks to such a silly level that the spot doesn't deserve the title 'attack ad.' One is savvy, one is petty, but neither is vitriolic.
Democrats have their own complaints with GOP's tactics. They don't like insensitive punches that Romney surrogates occasionally throw at the president, including former Gov. John Sununu's line that the President should 'learn how to be an American', or a Romney campaign adviser's claim that the governor better appreciates our 'Anglo-Saxon heritage.' But the birther elements fired up by that kind of messaging are a punchline among the moderates and independents whose votes will turn the election; at this point, those kind of statements are more tone-deaf and absurd than hateful. The attacks don't approach the negativity of Swift Boat or Willie Horton ads of the past, and no Romney or Obama spot has yet to exploit the same primal fears of Lyndon B. Johnson's infamous 1964 'Daisy' ad.
This 'historically negative' campaign feels more like a tedious, well-funded back-and-forth between a battered incumbent and a relatively unlikeable challenger. The election has few compelling storylines ' the economy is sluggish but hardly collapsing. President Obama's 'hope and change' energy has transformed into the grizzled reserve of incumbency. Gov. Romney is hardly a flashy, pop-culture icon, nor is he a party messiah. As the election has little else to offer that is sexy or entertaining, the media becomes hyperfocused on the mudslinging.
The problem is that neither side has resorted to the type of attacks that could make this a truly nasty campaign: at no point has the Romney camp run an explicitly racist ad, and the Obama camp hasn't used Gov. Romney's Mormon religion as a cudgel. That's not to say ads of that kind aren't in the pipeline, but little suggests that either side will hurl anything like the 'Before Its Too Late' ads that opponents used against Harold Washington in his 1983 run for Mayor of Chicago.
Despite this, the political elite would have you believe the campaign's tone is 'nauseating.' No, what is actually nauseating is our incessant need to inject hyperbole into conflicts that are far too trivial to be paid such attention.
Take a Fox News segment that aired Tuesday in which the host asked a four year old lemonade stand operator how the President's 'you didn't build that' statement made her feel. Her yawn and non-answer suggest it made her feel like taking a nap. Or take an ABC News controversy from over the weekend, in which reporter Brian Ross rushed to connect the Aurora shooter to the local Tea Party. He quickly found himself in hot water after the story he 'broke' turned out to be pure BS. These are just two examples of the overhyped politicization of every pin that drops on the American landscape.
The effect is to turn voters against the campaigns that they perceive as the engines of this nonsense. The campaigns are certainly to blame for lighting the fire. But just like a misbehaving child seeking attention, the campaigns feel rewarded by the free media attention and in turn create a bigger and bigger cottage industry of 'contrast activities.'
Amazingly, the polls remain 'incredibly steady' despite all of this supposed negativity. Contrast spots may be having an affect on targeted demographics in swing states, where margins of victory are set to be thin and any shift in votes is crucial. But while the petty bickering is enough to grab the nation's attention and annoy it, the arguments aren't nearly substantive or controversial enough to shift national public opinion in a fundamental way. They may damage our personal opinions of the nominees as men, but they have not shaken the polls from their summer-long stasis.
If 'negativity' suddenly cause a huge shift in the polls, or we see historic voter apathy in November, maybe then it will be time to evaluate the depths our politics have fallen to. Barring that, this overhyped Beltway narrative will continue feed on itself, and the news media will continue to let the candidates off the hook on the real issues. We're worse off for that than we'll ever be from a couple of politicians throwing a few spit balls at each other.
Blame the media'Good one, Mitt. Give any freakin' press access at all and you wouldn't have these problems. At least old man McCain understood the game he was in. Romney seems essentially clueless.
Thats all in Willard's bag of tricks. Blame the media. Romney is utterly clueless and last I checked, it was the British press that had more of a problem with the criticism of the Olympics, than the American press corp.
So Willard wanted to have a fancy international tour, but didn't want press coverage? If he wasn't shitting the bed at every single stop, wouldn't he be complaining if he wasn't getting enough press?
I've never heard that before,' blame the media when you fall short!
You're right Mitt! I dare anyone here to show me 3 times he's stuck his foot in his mouth on this trip! Go ahead! Show me any gaffes in London or Israel, or Poland. I can't think of any? HA HA HA HA!
Willard, release your tax returns !!!
Can any liberal describe to me in less than a paragraph any of his gaffes? What 'gaffe' did Romney make on this trip?
HMMMM. Well Mittens I have an idea for you, go try another network other than FAUX News.
Whine on, Willard.
You've got FOX teabagging you 24/7, and you blame your problems on the media.
I find it funny that the media can put out a 5 minute segment on Romney's supposed 'gaffe' by stating a fact in London but can't afford 30 seconds to the news that consumer confidence is down to the levels it was in January
Obama's record with Poland: ( Actual gaffes)
'Obama's record of Polish political gaffes'
'May 2012: Obama refers to 'Polish Death Camps'
'March 2012: President Obama's 'hot mic' promise to Russia'
'May 2011: President Obama's token visit to Poland'
'April 2010: President Obama goes golfing during presidential funeral'
'September 2009: Obama announces plans to scrap the missile defense program in Europe'
'February 2009: Biden says White House is ready to 'press the reset button' with Russia'
'November 2008: Obama contradicts Polish President on missile defense'
http://washingtonexaminer.com/...
Is that snark? You're kidding right?
Willard McDole went to 10 Downing Street and took a huge dump on the British people.
Fresh after eating some hot sauce
Was this post about Obama? I think my reading comprehension skills may be out of wack?
By the way, the missle defense was not scrapped. It's been moved from land to sea!
Willard is a COMPLETE IDIOT !
The Obama Press Corpse ignores Romney's magnificent speech in Israel to feature Palestinian propaganda and lies:
'How AP, NPR Lied About Romney 'Jewish Donors' Speech, Using Palestinian Propaganda'
'Romney made no claim about the 'cultural superiority' of Jews over Arabs, as Erekat claims'and as the AP and NPR report dutifully, recycling a false meme of Jewish self-regard that is common in both anti-Israel propaganda and antisemitic literature.
Instead, Romney praised Israel's entrepreneurial culture'which is striking precisely because it runs counter to the socialist politics many Jews brought with them to their new state.
The AP and NPR have disgraced themselves in twisting Romney's words to provide fodder for his critics.'
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/07/30/How-the-AP-and-NPR-Lied-About-Romney-Jewish-Donors-Speech-Using-Palestinian-Propaganda
The most dangerous was MI6. There were others, as you well know.
Type faster. Your guy is pissing it away.
Yeah, blame the media and Obama for your failures.
Magnificent? lol, this is embarrassing. It's like you are paid to say these things, but it's so twisted that even a paid staff will find it hard to continue with this horrid job.
You are just jealous of Romney's success.
I think it is time to start talking about 2016. What Republican is entitled to the nomination then? Gingrich?
The point of Willard's whole trip was to draw attention to himself and showcase his foreign policy cred. Don't whine because the media followed him down the rat hole he dug for himself.
Keep crying, breitard.
Curious' How come the MSM doesn't care about the unemployment rate, unsustainable debt, looming tax increases, and the economy on the brink of another recession?
My favorite was when he gushed about Israel's socialist government run health insurance.
Christie.
The irony was sweet.
Somewhat related, I enjoyed the opening ceremony of the the Olympics, the tribute to GOSH and NHS. All of the Republicans kept telling us how people in various single payer nations clamored to get out of the system. Yet, the Brits did this homage.
Because, it's all part of a wide-ranging conspiracy, Tina.
Oh, I don't know. I am kind of partial to his bigoted comments that Palestinian Arabs have a culture completely directed to utter failure.
Did he have a chance to check on those tax shelters while he was away or too busy making a gd fool of himself? STFU and cough up those tax returns Thurston.
You replied to the wrong post because my name is not Tina nor am I female.
Thought the fact that Romney couldnt remember the Labour Leader's name was completely comical. He called Ed Miliband'.'Dear Leader'
This time the Republicans may jettison the extreme and go with the other Mormon.
I cannot possibly imagine Huntsmann having shit all over himself going from the UK to Israel to Poland.
Well the wet magic under garment that is Romney, whenever he explodes, he runs to daddy, Fox for a bail out.
If the media has any respect, they would not chase Romney around until he seeks for them to be interviewed. Fox has done a wickedly destruction of the news media. Fox at the most once a week gets about 3.35M by O'Reilly. There are 313M people in USA. MSM there are more of you and less of Fox. Stop modeling your business like Fox.
Stop the insanity.
Because the numbers don't clearly foretell of another recession right now. Obama will have an ad campaign to convince the American people that treasonous Republicans in the House and Senate purposely kept them from getting jobs in order to put party before patriotism.
The voters already know that their tax increases are coming because Republicans are holding them hostage as a favor to the rich. This is not something the Republicans really want to take into November.
By the way, when Obama gets his 2nd term, he will demand that the GOP, assuming they still hold the House, give a 3-year extension of the now-Obama tax cuts to those making < $250K. Only then will Obama talk tax reform to eliminate loopholes and reductions in budget spending, and probably on a $1 tax increase for $1 spending cut basis.
You would think so, based on press coverage, but it's wide open for 2016 for both parties.
Romney had the money and the organization against a bunch of clowns and still had to struggle to win because republicans just don't like him. The next nominee (after Romney loses) will have to have the entire package: money, organization, grassroots /tea party appeal, and Republican establishment backing. That's a tall order.
This?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48417194
One wonders what Romney thought while he sat there watching that, in attendance with his wife Anne. Probably 'Oh sh-t!'
Sorry. I'm sure you can understand my confusion.
Because, it's all part of a wide-ranging conspiracy, Charlton Heston's Ghost.
The party may be changing, it certainly seems to be on the verge of a great change in Texas, today, but the SOP, the modus operandi, has always been to nominate someone who has sought the office before and lost. Nixon. Raygun. Poppy. Dole. McCain. To be sure, W was an exception, but if the party holds to its time-honored tradition, aren't we left with Bachman, Cain, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Toll Booth, Santorum, arguably Huntsmann? If we limit the field to serious candidates, that would mean Gingrich, Huntsmann, Pawlenty, Santorum; serious + likely to get the nomination, Pawlenty, Santorum; serious + likely to get the nomination + electable, Pawlenty.
You may well be right. The matrix may have changed.
It worked for Gingrich, at least temporarily'VERY temporarily.