Mitt's Momentum: Like All Sports Champs Of The Past Year, It's All About How You Finish

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With five straight days (Wednesday-Sunday) of Gallup polls showing Mitt Romney with a 6-to-7 point lead over Barack Obama, and with the Governor getting over the magic number of 50% in the process, one question is being asked in media circles both publicly and privately:

'What the hell is happening?!?'

Even if the lead isn't 7 points, every poll shows Romney leading comfortably among independents (8.3 point margin average in ten major polls), a segment of the electorate the President won by over 8 points in 2008. That's an ominous sign.

Another is that Pennsylvania, once considered safely in Democratic hands, is now very much in play as evidenced by Paul Ryan's visit on Sunday (along with one outlier Susquehanna poll showing a 4-point Romney lead). Blue states such as Michigan and Minnesota are getting too close for comfort for Axelrod and company as well.

We keep hearing that if the President can hang on to Ohio (which is slowly trending to Romney), victory is likely his on November 6th. But if Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes were to flip for the first time since 1988' and Virginia and Florida polls were to hold where they are now in Romney's favor'we're looking at a one-term President.

It was only three weeks ago when some in the media had publicly declared the election more over than Eva Longoria's surrogate career. Current's Cenk Uygur proclaimed victory for the President on September 27th (pre-debates), unequivocally stating the only way the challenger could win would be by a 'major miracle.' A race-changing debate performance by an experienced challenger versus a vulnerable incumbent ' not exactly a stretch considering the state of the economy ' wasn't considered a possibility.

Given Uygur's place on the cable news food chain (think of plankton), the prediction didn't exactly shake the political establishment. But slightly bigger fish (in terms of audience) were sharing the same thoughts, such as MSNBC's Martin Bashir and Donny Deutsch, were also sticking their collective forks in Romney. And after the GOP convention, a full month before said debates, Salon Magazine called what happened in Tampa a 'bust', a 'debacle', and one that Romney could not possibly recover from (hyperbole alert!).

Even lifelong Democrat Ben Affleck stated the following on October 2nd: 'Romney just had such trouble coming off as just like the kind of person you see at the grocery store. And I truly believe that has cost him the election.'

All of these poignant prognostications beg the question: Is ANYONE in the political bubble paying attention to what's been happening in sports the past year?

The recipe for success has been abundantly clear in all of the professional leagues:

1)Start slow, fail to find footing (See: Romney campaign until October)
2)Have supporters question leadership of the organization for most of the season (See: Peggy Noonan, Joe Scarborough, Rush Limbaugh, etc.)
3)Experience one game-changing moment (See: First debate)
4)Use momentum to go on the offensive (See: Romney campaign since first debate)
5)Take the lead late (happening now)
6)Win the big prize (remains to be seen)

The St. Louis Cardinals (2011 version), New York Giants, Miami Heat, and the friggin' Los Angeles Kings (sorry, Jersey Devils fan here) all have followed the same script.

In baseball, the Cards were 10.5 games out in late August before making an impossible run at a Wild Card berth and eventually winning a World Series championship (despite trailing in all three of their playoff series).

Same deal for the Giants: After a lackluster 7-7 start, Tom Coughlin's crew ran the table to win the NFC East. Four more wins in the postseason later, including a comeback win over the favored Patriots in the Super Bowl, they were improbable champs for the second time in four years.

Like the Cardinals, the Miami Heat also trailed in three playoff series before coming back to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy. Not exactly a lovable underdog (much like Romney), but a gritty run by LeBron and company nonetheless.

And then there's the L.A. Kings (yes, hockey has worked its way into a Mediaite column). A #8 seed entering the second season after fighting just to qualify for the playoffs, they Zambonied each of their four playoff opponents on their way to their first Stanley Cup'

The Cards, Giants, Heat, and Kings all got hot at the right time.

In a different kind of competition, so is Mitt Romney.

All were once considered more dead than Newsweek.

'It ain't over till it's over,' a Yankee catcher once said.

Or in the case of this election, it ain't over until the debates are over.

Or until the October jobs report is in'

Or until all votes are cast'

Or until'

Oh, you get the idea.

It's all about how you finish.

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