In 2008, Gallup projected that self-identified Democrats would outnumber Republicans by 39 to 35 percent. When voters who leaned Democratic were included, they projected an 12 point advantage for Democrats. This slightly overestimated the final national electorate, in which Democrats enjoyed wide but slightly smaller advantage over Republicans. In 2004, Gallup found party identification favoring Republicans by 2 points, which virtually mirrored the final national vote in which Bush won by just over 2 percent.
This year, Gallup finds a one point Republican advantage over Democrats, at 36 to 35 percent. They also find that self-identified independent voters will make up 29 percent of the electorate. However, when leaners are included, Republican voters will outnumber Democratic voters by 49 to 46 percent.
This finding is close to what Rasmussen Reports saw in their August/September average of party identification. Their surveys found Republicans dominating the electorate with Democrats trailing their 2004 and 2008 turnout totals. Independent voters, which most national polls show favoring Mitt Romney by wide margins but backed President Barack Obama in 2008, approximately mirror their 2008 turnout totals (the Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll on Thursday showed Romney with a 19-point advantage over Obama among independent voters).
Rasmussen's August/September averages in 2004 and 2008 were relatively close to the actual electorate. In 2004, Rasmussen predicted slightly fewer Republicans would turnout than actually showed up and, in 2008, they slightly overestimated GOP turnout, but the electorate they projected would show up was close enough to the final total that their 2012 projection merits consideration.
Given the closeness of these pollsters' findings to the actual electorates in 2004 and 2008, they should be taken seriously. If their projections hold up on Election Day, it is not just probable but likely that Mitt Romney will win the national popular vote. Given the persistent closeness of the race in the battleground states, an Electoral College/popular vote split is no longer an outside possibility.
> >Follow Noah Rothman (@Noah_C_Rothman) on Twitter
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Ahh, the conservative mantra ' 'All polls are BS ' except Rasmussen.' We'll see how that works out for them on election day. :-)
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If 2010, Scott Walker, and Chickfila didnt show you libbies living under rocks Republican enthusiasm is WAY up, just wait til 11.6.12!
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Battleground states are not as close as you think. Romney is surging. States once firmly in Obama's control are now toss-up. No stopping Romney at this point. He'll get over 300 in the Electoral College.
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I can't stop laughing! You'd better prepare for Romney's loss on November 6th. Living in that bubble turned out to be a disaster for Romney. (See his Benghazi response in the second debate) I can't get that look he had on his face out of my head as the President stated 'Please proceed govenor'. Ha!
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Um, do you know what the voters in Wisconsin told pollsters upon exiting the voting booths? They said that while they hated Walker, they didn't want to set a precedent of recalling an elected official, less it be used against their elected candidate. Why do you think Mitt isn't leading in Wisconsin?
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#spinspinspin continue to be ignorant to the fact that Libbie enthusiam is lowest level in a decade while Republicans is at a peak. Itll make it that much more fun watching you all lose your minds in 11 days.
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Today, more polls have Romney leading than Obama.
More polls also have Romney at 50% or above than Obama.
Still laughing? -
Wave your pompoms harder. It'll help make your fantasy come true.
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Gallup and Rasmussen? Wow, Obama's toast.
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And yet Obama is still selling at over 60 on Intrade and Nate Silver ' whose accuracy is undisputed (except in Wingnutland) ' has raised Obama's chances of reelection to 73.1%.
We wouldn't trade places with you folks on a bet.
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You must be very young. Your naivete shows through every single post. It's not just that your comments are woefully misinformed; it's that you repeatedly make statements that are simply not supportable by any credible evidence. You pretend to KNOW with metaphysical certitude what's going to happen on election day. And so far the only substantiation you've provided is that Mitt has a lot of followers on Facebook.
Forgive us for not taking a thing you write seriously ever.
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You think it's impossible? BS, you are. It is entirely possible. With the massive surge ' which started before Mitt's huge win in the first debate ' it is starting to become probable. You want to wave something? Wave O-bye-bye.
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Thanks for the info Noah.
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Gallop has been wildly off in the past and has been criticized for over-estimating the white vote.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/obama-campaign-criticizes-gallup-for-swing-state-poll-20121015
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/17/gallup-poll-race-barack-obama_n_1589937.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108816/whats-going-the-gallup-poll
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/re-obama-v-gallup.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/19/about-that-gallup-poll-is-romney-really-up-by-7-and-will-obama-win-the-election-anyway/
I would put all this argumentation into the blender. It's probably not a great idea to adhere to one poll or poll firm too strongly and it's also probably not a great idea to take polling criticisms too much to heart'
but the various objections ought to be noted.
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You've missed the Facebook point entirely. You must be very old. The point is that Mitt is surging. He has the momentum. Not only does he have a growing number of people who LIKE him on Facebook, my friends are starting to LIKE him too. My friends are overwhelmingly NY/NJ Registered Dems. People are coming out of their digital closets and supporting Romney. On Twitter, if you aren't on Twitter maybe it is because you are very old, there is tremendous chatter for Romney. Are there metrics which will prove that? Probably. I'll go with my gut, though. I wouldn't see all the pro-Romney chatter if it wasn't happening. If you want to see studies, Google 'Colorado Professors' or visit the major pollsters. They offer the hard evidence you desire. Lastly, Check your html, pops.
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They are either living under rocks or are dishonest. Romney is surging. It's palpable.
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The probability, based on current polling, that Mitt Romney gets 300 electoral votes approaches 1%. But if you like those odds you're welcome to them.
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The analysis is inherently flawed, it fails to take into account household pets, dead people and illegal aliens in the Democrat voter count.
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All that matters is Nov 6th. Romney/Ryan 2012
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I just saw on Twitter Wisconsin was 49-49. Minnesota is now in play. PA is in play. Mitt is surging and there is a lot of time left. Mitt will win Wisconsin.
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And yet a sober, thoughtful analysis of the data shows that your interpretation is simply out of step with the reality. I'll put much more faith in the careful data-driven analysis of Nate Silver ' who puts Obama's odds of victory at over 73 percent ' than whether your little circle of chums is suddenly finding a reason to 'like' Romney. It's very easy to sit inside a bubble and not see what's going on outside.
At any rate, anyone who makes certain predictions like 'No stopping Romney at this point. He'll get over 300 in the Electoral College' is either incredibly young or incredibly naive. Based on a review of your comments, I'd guess you're both.
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You can find Vegas oddsmakers who predicted 6 months ago Romney would win standing by their policy today.
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Who are you gonna believe ' the careful, data-driven analysis of polling experts or Art's Facebook friends?
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'Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then
are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views.'-
William F. Buckley, Jr. -
You do have to wonder what Art and his friends will do when Obama wins with these numbers staring them in the face. Romney could conceivably win, I suppose, but he's going to have to turn a number of states around in the final week.
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Views are fine. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, just not their own facts.
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Rass WAY overestimated GOP turnout in 2010, which I suspect is why Noah doesn't mention their track record in 2010 at all. They were way off that year.
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What are you dense? Are you sure you're sober? The reality is what I wrote. There is massive chatter and support for a surging Mitt Romney, bubble man. Keep believing in Obama. Less and less people do. Demonstratively. Go Google 'Colorado Professors Election' if you want careful data-driven analysis to step to.
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Gallop too' by 9 points in 2010.
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And a story about a Facebook surge only days after information that 1 person was responsible for purchasing enough shares at intrade to show a romney surge.
Give me a break.
Much ado like the 'surging' idea in general.
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There's no arguing with trolls like Art. He is exactly the sort of person Colbert was talking about when he first introduced the word TRUTHINESS:
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/24039/october-17-2005/the-word'truthiness
'That's the difference between those who think with their heads and KNOW with their hearts.' LOL.
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Didn't Gallup say there would be +15 for the Republicans in 2010 when the actual number turned out to be +7? Yeeeeeah
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I wonder what the faces of Glen Doherty and Ty Woods looked like when they realized we were not going to send them help?
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Don't be a moron. That study was debunked months ago. But here's what they're still saying:
* The model predicts that Romney will carry New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada, according to the university.
http://news.yahoo.com/university-colorado-professors-continue-predict-romney-win-165000060.html
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haha
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Well bookies are in it for the money not ideology. Name an oddmaker who is offering even money on a Romney win. You can't. You may want to fantasize about Romney winning California or something but the gamblers are not foolish.
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WHERE? Oh you mean the Vegas Oddsmakers who predicted the McCain win in 2008 and that Gingrich would be the nominee and that Jesus would return before August to anoint the republican nominees Perry/Santorum, and who predicted Palin would run.
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Your starting to sound pornographic with so many comments filled with surging republicans and palpable things.
You got it wrong by petting the sweaty things instead of sweating the the petty things.
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Art stole that 300 prediction from the winner of the republican primaries Lizard Gettinrich the high lord of Moonbat Base Callista.
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Your to late with that advice for Art, he is a moron.
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They looked incredulous that as mercenaries for hire the US Government was ignoring them like their employer who should have been ready to back up his mercenaries, did the private mercenary corporation who had the contract to guard the Ambassador when he was away from the EMBASSY give back the money they were paid?
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Suuuuuuuuure he is.
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